Seaborne coal is producing a paradox for dry bulk owners: Chinese demand is softening while shifting sourcing keeps vessel demand resilient. Ursa Shipbrokers reports total Chinese coal imports rose 3.4 percent year on year to 310.2m tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, while ocean discharges fell 3.7 percent to 221.3m tonnes, with Mongolia supplying 78.4m tonnes overland.

Seaborne steam coal fell 6.9 percent to 188.3m tonnes while seaborne coking coal jumped 31.1 percent to 29m tonnes. Signal Research forecasts full-year Chinese seaborne thermal coal imports of 270m to 290m tonnes and noted that ‘additional cargoes from more distant origins could increase voyage demand even if total tonnes ease.’

Panamaxes carried 132.7m tonnes of Chinese seaborne thermal coal from January to August, up 1.9 percent, while supramax volumes fell 27.5 percent to 32m tonnes. Production quotas and low river levels in Kalimantan are restricting Indonesian movements and pushing buyers toward more distant origins. Global seaborne coal exports reached 866.8m tonnes through August, up 1.7 percent.