U.S. seaborne grain exports rose 9% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, according to BIMCO, despite a sharp drop in shipments to China due to new retaliatory tariffs. While U.S. grain exports to China fell from 26% of total exports in early 2024 to just 10% in 2025, American exporters successfully redirected cargoes to alternative markets in Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean. However, soya bean and sorghum exports suffered significant declines, and overall tonne mile demand in the dry bulk sector dropped 7% as new destinations are geographically closer to the U.S. than China. The reopening of the Panama Canal for grain shipments further shortened shipping distances. Panamax vessels carried the largest share of U.S. grain exports, while the supramax segment saw a notable decline. Looking ahead, a seasonal uptick in shipments is expected post-harvest, but challenges remain for soya bean and sorghum exports, with China likely to continue favoring Brazilian suppliers.

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