A.P. Moller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest container line, has sharply raised its 2026 earnings guidance, completing a striking reversal from the loss it warned of only months ago. The Danish carrier now expects an underlying operating profit of $2bn to $4bn — up from a previously flagged underlying EBIT loss of as much as $1.5bn — and lifted its underlying EBITDA outlook to $8bn–$10bn.

The turnaround has been driven by a sustained surge in freight rates and stronger-than-expected cargo demand, which has tightened the market as demand outpaces effective fleet growth. Maersk raised its global container-demand outlook to around 4% growth for the year, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index has climbed above 3,200 points as congestion and longer voyage distances continue to absorb new capacity.

Analysts caution that the strength looks disruption-driven rather than the start of a new supercycle, with a record orderbook of roughly 12m teu set to deliver into next year. For now, Maersk’s upgrade signals that 2026 is shaping up to be another highly profitable year for liner shipping, defying earlier predictions of oversupply.

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